Natural gas is on track to surpass petroleum as the primary energy source in the U.S. by the end of the decade, a significant shift after 75 years of oil dominance. In 2025, natural gas accounted for 36% of U.S. energy consumption, just behind petroleum's 37%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 3.4% increase in gas demand between 2025 and 2027, compared to a 0.6% rise for petroleum, further narrowing the gap.
This ascendance is largely attributed to the shale revolution, which dramatically increased natural gas output and made it an inexpensive fuel. The electrification of the U.S. economy, fueled by a surge in demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and data centers, is boosting electricity consumption. Natural gas plants generate over 40% of the nation's power, and their ability to ramp up and down quickly also complements intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
The shift also reflects a broader energy transition, with natural gas largely displacing coal as a power plant fuel. More than 100 coal plants were either replaced or converted to gas generators from 2011 to 2020. While renewables have seen faster percentage growth, the absolute growth of natural gas has been greater. U.S. natural gas exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), are also growing substantially, with shipments expected to roughly double by the end of the decade. Shell anticipates U.S. feedgas for LNG plants will constitute 23% of total U.S. gas production by 2035.
Experts like Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corp., predict natural gas will establish a significant lead over petroleum by 2030. Ira Joseph of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy highlights the abundance and affordability of natural gas as key drivers. Mark Brownstein of the Environmental Defense Fund notes that the U.S. is transitioning away from coal and oil towards electricity generated by natural gas and renewables.
