Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering after the US-Iran ceasefire, but traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels. Following the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed on June 17, which included the immediate resumption of commercial navigation, daily crossings have improved from a near-standstill during hostilities. MarineTraffic vessel-tracking data on Tuesday showed 34 ships transiting, a modest improvement, yet still far below the pre-conflict average of approximately 100 daily crossings. Similarly, other data indicated that 144 vessels crossed in the five days after the MOU, averaging nearly 29 vessels daily, which is slightly more than 20% of pre-war levels.
The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supplies pass, was effectively closed by Iran during the conflict, causing freight costs and energy prices to surge. Pre-war traffic saw about 130 commercial vessels daily, falling to as low as one vessel on some days during the conflict, with a daily average of about 10 vessels. Despite the agreement, the lingering caution among shipping companies, insurers, and energy traders means a sustained increase in vessel movements will be watched as an indicator of whether security has stabilized enough for normal operations. Crude oil prices, for instance, slid further on Thursday morning (July 2, 2026), with Brent crude dropping $1.38 and WTI sliding to $68/barrel, indicating continued market sensitivity to the security situation.
Recent data from Kpler shows that traffic was increasing, with 73 ships on one day and 54 on another, until fresh attacks on June 25 and June 27 highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire. The UN shipping agency temporarily paused plans to evacuate stranded ships and seafarers, and the UK's Maritime Trade Agency raised its threat assessment to "substantial." Key roadblocks to fully reopening the strait include high insurance costs and distrust regarding Iran's commitment to keep the strait open, especially with concerns about sea mines laid during the conflict. Iran's insistence on potentially controlling maritime traffic or imposing transit fees further complicates the security situation, with the US stressing that tolls and service fees are unacceptable under international law.
While the US administration has indicated that with American military support, oil flows have surged to more than 10 million barrels per day through the strait, approaching normal levels when combined with alternative routes, the 60-day ceasefire deal remains fragile. The agreement requires Iran to use its "best efforts" to ensure safe passage and clear mines within 30 days. However, recent attacks and the ongoing debate over Iran's desire to control the waterway continue to fuel concerns that the maritime corridor has yet to return to business as usual, highlighting the need for clear agreements and a game of confidence for shippers.
