Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to uphold the existing federal ban on oil tankers in Northern British Columbia, a decision that will likely direct Alberta's proposed West Coast crude oil pipeline to a southern route through the province. This move comes as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith prepares to announce details of her government's pipeline proposal, which aims to transport 1 million barrels of oil per day from the oilsands to a West Coast port for export to Asian markets. Although Smith has expressed a preference for a northern route, potentially to the deepwater port at Prince Rupert due to its shorter shipping distance to Asia, the federal government and Premier David Eby of British Columbia, along with several First Nations communities, oppose a northern route, citing environmental concerns and the existing tanker ban. Industry experts, such as Dennis McConaghy, a retired pipeline executive, also believe a southern route is the "only game in town" due to the significant legal risks posed by opposition from coastal First Nations in the northern part of the province.
The pipeline proposal is closely linked to the Pathways carbon capture network, a massive project by Alberta's biggest oil producers. The federal and provincial governments inked a memorandum of understanding last fall, contingent on the progress of Pathways, which aims to offset emissions from increased oilsands production. The Pathways project, with an estimated cost of between $20 billion and $30 billion, would transport carbon to an underground hub near Cold Lake, Alberta. While federal and provincial investment tax credits are expected to cover much of the capital costs, the fate of the pipeline rests largely with the CEOs of the five biggest oilsands companies, who are partners in Pathways and whose production would be needed to fill the new pipeline. These companies might be hesitant to sign on as shippers given higher climate costs from the industrial carbon price and the tens of billions of dollars required for Pathways.
Alberta aims to have the pipeline designated a project of national interest by October, with shovels in the ground as early as September 2027 and startup in the mid-2030s. The federal government, however, favors a southern B.C. route, believing it would face fewer environmental hurdles and less resistance from Indigenous groups. While B.C. Premier David Eby has historically opposed new West Coast pipelines, he has recently softened his stance. Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith have been in "close contact" regarding the proposal, with discussions "tracking well" despite severe weather canceling Carney's planned visit to Alberta. Carney emphasized the "substantial economic and financial benefits" for B.C. from a new pipeline and reiterated his commitment to both the pipeline and the carbon capture project as examples of "co-operative federalism."
