Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's government is scheduled to unveil its proposal for a new oil pipeline to the West Coast on Thursday, July 2. The pipeline aims to transport up to one million barrels per day from the oilsands to a West Coast port, with startup projected for the mid-2030s. The province is acting as the proponent for the pipeline, with the goal of having it designated a "project of national interest" by October 2026 and commencing construction by September 2027.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has tied its support for the pipeline to the construction of a massive carbon capture and storage (CCS) network, known as Pathways, by major oilsands companies. This CCS project is intended to offset emissions from increased oilsands production. However, experts like Dennis McConaghy, a retired pipeline executive, express skepticism, noting that oilsands companies would be reluctant to sign on as shippers given existing high climate costs and the tens of billions of dollars required for Pathways.
While Carney has expressed openness to amending parts of the federal oil tanker ban to facilitate such a project, British Columbia Premier David Eby remains opposed to lifting the ban and has criticized Alberta for lacking private sector backing for its proposal. Additionally, opposition from several First Nations communities and environmental groups, particularly regarding proposed routes in northern B.C., poses significant legal and logistical challenges. Some experts suggest a southern route through B.C. might be the "only game in town" to avoid these constitutional rights disputes, although it still faces opposition.
Despite these hurdles, Alberta's Energy Minister Brian Jean previously indicated interest from various investors, including an unidentified Fortune 500 company willing to finance the entire project. Alberta's submission to the federal Major Projects Office, created to expedite nationally significant infrastructure, marks a critical step. The ultimate success of the pipeline hinges on securing commitments from the five largest oilsands companies, who are also partners in the Pathways project, to fill the new pipeline.
