Melissa Sawyer, Global Head of M&A at Sullivan & Cromwell, stated that IPO volume will be the true indicator of a returning M&A market. She anticipates that renewed IPO activity will embolden private equity sponsors to exit portfolio companies and reinvest capital into new deals, thus spurring more M&A. Sawyer noted that a more favorable tone from Washington has bolstered confidence among companies considering transactions.
Global M&A activity reached $2.6 trillion in the first half of the year, a 30% increase year-over-year, putting dealmakers on track to potentially surpass the record set in 2021. This surge was characterized by mega-deals, with 38 transactions valued at $10 billion or more, setting a new record for a six-month period. Dealmakers expect the second half of the year to be equally strong or even better. Overall, global M&A hit a record $2.8 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 48% from the previous year, marking the strongest start since 1980 according to LSEG data.
While the total value of M&A increased, the number of deals actually fell by 9% to approximately 24,000, the lowest first-half count in six years. This indicates a trend where buyers are favoring fewer, larger transactions. Cross-border M&A also saw significant growth, surging to $893 billion during the first half of 2026, a 62% increase from the same period last year and the strongest start since 2018. The US attracted the most cross-border interest, accounting for 25% of transactions, with Britain close behind.
Despite the overall positive outlook, private equity remained a laggard in the first half. According to JPMorgan's Charles Bouckaert, the "bread and butter" private equity business was significantly down. This is largely attributed to the difficulty in exiting investments made earlier at high valuations and low interest rates. However, the regulatory environment is seen as a major positive, with a "light touch" from the business-friendly Trump administration being a key factor enabling the current deal deluge, according to Laura Turano of Paul Weiss. This improved regulatory landscape is seen as a game-changer, impacting both the feasibility and timeline of transactions.
