Oil prices fell on Wednesday as positive sentiment surrounding the U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar eased concerns about potential supply disruptions. Brent futures decreased by $0.95, or 1.30%, to $72.00 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $0.54, or 0.78%, to $68.96 a barrel, its lowest level since February 27. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the meetings had gone well, and Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted that the ongoing negotiations were perceived positively, suggesting the possibility of even lower prices.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has played a significant role in calming supply anxieties. Tanker traffic through this critical waterway has begun to recover, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirming that oil flows have returned to pre-war levels. This improvement in supply channels led analysts to cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, according to a Reuters poll. Despite this, Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard stated that oil prices appear to be settling into a new range of $72 to $75 a barrel, though market normalization is incomplete, and Middle East conflict uncertainty persists.
Prices experienced substantial quarterly declines, with Brent falling by approximately $45 a barrel in the second quarter, marking its largest quarterly drop since the 2008 global financial crisis. U.S. crude futures saw a decrease of around $31, their most significant quarterly decline since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted global oil demand. Additionally, markets are awaiting official U.S. oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), following indications from American Petroleum Institute (API) data on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell again last week.
Further adding to potential supply, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to agree on a further increase in their output targets from August when they meet on Sunday, as indicated by three sources on Wednesday. This comes at a time when prices are already falling amid the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing technical talks in Doha between the U.S. and Iran are focused on agreeing on shipping flow through the Strait of Hormuz and securing a lasting ceasefire.
