Ukraine's persistent drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have plunged Russia into an unprecedented fuel crisis, leaving about a third of its refining capacity offline. Since late March, over 50 reported attacks have occurred on oil refineries, depots, and terminals in Russia and occupied Crimea. This has resulted in a 25% year-over-year decrease in crude oil processed in June, reaching its lowest level in over two decades at 3.95 million barrels per day. Gasoline production has fallen by 17% to 850,000 barrels a day, significantly short of domestic demand. Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory Ltd. estimates that shortages will likely persist through the summer due to high agricultural demand and extensive damage to facilities like the Moscow Oil Refinery, which supplied 40% of the capital's fuel and faces at least three months of repairs.
The crisis has manifested in widespread fuel rationing across more than half of Russia's regions, with hours-long queues at gas stations, rising prices, and empty pumps. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged "problems persist for both motorists and businesses" but dismissed the shortages as "not critical" and "temporary," blaming panic-buying. However, the logistical challenge of reallocating existing fuel supplies in such a vast country means that solutions are not immediate. The Russian government is now considering importing fuel, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirming ongoing discussions with several countries to stabilize the market and curb panic-buying.
The repair of damaged refineries is complicated by the fact that specialized equipment is often sourced internationally. Sanctions make these repairs time-consuming and expensive as Russia seeks alternative procurement methods. Some analysts argue that certain refineries may not be worth repairing until a ceasefire or armistice is in place, given the risk of further attacks. This fuel crisis, a first for one of the world's largest energy producers, has brought the impacts of the war directly to ordinary Russians, restricting exports of gasoline and aviation fuel, and potentially leading to a ban on diesel fuel exports.
