French households will face an average 7.4% increase in gas prices starting July 1, 2026, primarily due to rising market supply costs and higher transmission taxes. This translates to an average monthly increase of approximately €2.70 for those on variable-rate contracts, which account for about 60% of French households, or roughly six million contracts. For consumers with a gas-heated home using 11,200 kWh annually in a GRDF zone, the estimated yearly bill could reach €1,789, marking a significant increase of almost 25% in just two years.
The increase in gas prices is attributed to two main factors. Firstly, the "supply" component is rising due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has impacted both natural gas production and supply chains for liquefied natural gas. The Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE) noted that the benchmark price has risen by 18% since April because of this conflict, despite a 4.8% reduction in June. Secondly, a tax on the "acheminement" (transmission) of gas is also increasing. This tax, paid by the government to suppliers for maintaining France's gas network, is passed on to consumers.
Specifically, the transmission tax is set to increase by 5.87% on July 1, 2026. This increase, which is separate from the fluctuations in gas prices, will result in an approximate 1.5% average impact on the total bill for residential consumers. While variable-rate contracts will see prices fluctuate based on market rates, fixed-rate contracts, representing about 40% of gas-powered households, will not be affected by rising supply costs but will still experience price increases due to these higher transmission taxes. The CRE states that fixed-price contracts are projected to increase by around 1.85% per month due to these tax adjustments.
