President Trump has informed aides that he is prepared to end the U.S. military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be largely obstructed. This decision, according to administration officials, stems from an assessment that a mission to forcibly reopen the chokepoint would extend the conflict beyond his preferred timeframe of four to six weeks. Trump’s immediate objectives are to neutralize Iran’s naval and missile capabilities and then reduce current hostilities, while simultaneously applying diplomatic pressure on Tehran to restore free trade flow through the strait. Should diplomatic efforts fail, Washington plans to encourage European and Gulf allies to lead the effort to reopen the strait.
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted the global economy. The benchmark price for U.S. oil reached over $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 due to the situation, with some financial analysts predicting a possible surge to $200 a barrel if disruptions persist. Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply transits through the strait, and in 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquid natural gas shipped through it was destined for Asian markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The disruption has led to increased gas prices and shortages of critical industrial materials globally.
Despite his stated desire for a swift resolution that might not include an immediate reopening of the strait, Trump has taken contradictory actions. The USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit have recently been deployed to the region, and elements of the 82nd Airborne have been ordered to the Middle East, with consideration for sending an additional 10,000 ground troops. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, criticized the idea of ending military operations before the strait is open, calling it “unbelievably irresponsible” and emphasizing that global energy markets would continue to suffer regardless of U.S. efforts to isolate itself from the economic damage. Trump has also publicly urged other countries, including the U.K. and France, to take the lead in reopening the strait, stating that the U.S. has “decimated” Iran and the “hard part is done.”
