The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 5.4 points in June, reaching 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May, erasing nearly half of May's gains. Both the Present Situation Index, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, and the Expectations Index, which gauges short-term outlook, contributed to this decline. The Present Situation Index decreased by 6.4 points to 129.1, while the Expectations Index dropped by 4.6 points to 69.0, remaining below the 80-point threshold that commonly signals a recession fedprimerate.com.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board, stated that the decline was broad-based, affecting all components. Consumers expressed less positivity about current business conditions and job availability, which weakened for the sixth consecutive month. The three sub-components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all showed weakening, indicating increased pessimism about the coming six months fedprimerate.com.
The retreat in confidence was observed across all age groups and almost all income brackets, as well as political affiliations, with the most significant decline among Republicans. Consumers' primary concerns, as revealed by write-in responses, included tariffs, frequently associated with their negative impact on the economy and prices, and high inflation. However, there were slightly more mentions of easing inflation, with a cooling in average 12-month inflation expectations to 6.0% from 6.4% in May and 7% in April. Geopolitics and social unrest also saw a slight increase in mentions fedprimerate.com, cnn.com.
While consumers' assessment of their families' current financial situation remained solid, it deteriorated slightly. Expectations for their future financial situation, however, improved to a four-month high. The share of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased slightly in June, remaining above 2024 levels. Purchasing plans for cars remained steady at their highest level since December 2024, but home purchasing plans declined. Intentions to buy electronics were down, while plans for most appliances slightly increased. Overall, spending intentions for services weakened, though dining out, motor vehicle services, museum/historic sites, and fitness services saw rising intentions fedprimerate.com.
In contrast, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for June rose to 49.5 from 44.8 in May, a 10% increase, driven by moderating gas prices. Despite this improvement, the sentiment index remains 13% below February 2026 levels (pre-Iran conflict) and nearly 20% below a year ago, with high prices continuing to be a major concern for consumers. Over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing on their personal finances for the third consecutive month. Inflation expectations for the next year fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in May, while long-term expectations slipped to 3.3% from 3.9% news.umich.edu, businesstimes.com.sg.
