An OMFIF survey released on June 30, 2026, found that a greater number of central banks intend to decrease their dollar holdings over the next decade. This marks the first time in the survey's history that such a shift away from the dollar has been observed, driven by increasing political risks associated with the U.S. currency and heightened geopolitical tensions. The findings underscore a global debate concerning the U.S. dollar's role as the primary reserve currency, exacerbated by U.S. policy uncertainty and the long-term trajectory of U.S. debt, which is increasingly viewed as a structural risk.
Gold has emerged as a central component of reserve management strategy, with 82% of central banks holding it and a net 30% planning to increase their allocations in the next one to two years. Conversely, the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves has already declined to approximately 58% from its over 70% peak in the early 2000s. While some respondents maintain intentions to increase euro and Chinese renminbi holdings, structural challenges hinder both currencies, though nearly all surveyed consider the yuan effective for portfolio diversification. Other currencies like the Norwegian crown, New Zealand dollar, and sterling are also gaining ground among reserve assets.
The global monetary system is perceived to be transitioning to a "multipolar" world by 79% of central banks and 60% of public funds. The survey also highlighted a significant increase in interest in emerging markets, with 38% of global public funds planning to boost allocations, up from 27% last year. The U.S. and China were identified as the most attractive markets, partly due to their roles in the AI boom. Additionally, there's a growing embrace of AI, with over 66% of central banks planning to integrate it further, primarily for data analysis and back-office functions. Developed economies lead in AI adoption, with over 89% of their central banks using it, compared to 44% in emerging markets.
