Russia's seaborne crude exports surged to a 2026 high of 3.89 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to June 21, with weekly exports reaching a record 4.11 million barrels per day. This increase is partly attributed to Ukraine's ongoing drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure, which force Russia to export more crude that cannot be processed domestically. However, this volume increase has not translated into higher revenue due to sharply falling prices.
The total value of Russia's crude exports fell to $1.72 billion per week in the four weeks through June 21, a significant drop from $2.02 billion in the prior four-week period. On a single-week basis, export revenue was approximately $1.98 billion, a $70 million decline. The price of Russian crude delivered to India fell for a ninth consecutive week, dropping $8.80 to $90.36 per barrel. Urals crude prices from Baltic Sea ports fell by roughly $8.10 to $69.98 per barrel, and from Black Sea ports by $7.90 to $69.37. ESPO crude from Pacific ports declined $7.40 to $79.87 per barrel.
The decline in prices is largely due to easing Middle East tensions and the return of Iranian crude to global markets following a temporary US-Iran peace deal. This deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and brought an end to a US sanctions waiver that had previously favored Russian exports. The influx of Iranian crude, particularly light grades that can substitute for Russia's Urals, has intensified competition in Asian markets and driven down prices for Russia's key export grades. Global benchmark crude prices have fallen approximately 16% since early June, while Russia's main export grades have dropped about 20%.
