Shell Plc forecasts a flat global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade for 2026, largely attributed to the persistent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and challenges at Qatar's primary export facility. Shell CEO Wael Sawan noted in an April 28, 2026 interview that the ongoing shortages from the Hormuz blockade, which have prevented the production of approximately 900 million barrels, are likely to extend for several months, potentially into next year. This situation has led to declining stock levels, demand curtailment in certain regions, and a shift to alternative fuels.
Adding to the supply concerns, global LNG exports fell to a two-year low in April due to the Middle East conflict, with shipments dropping to about 33 million tons. This decline was exacerbated by Qatar's halt in production following strikes on its largest plant in March, which caused damage expected to take years to repair. Shell had previously declared force majeure on some contracts from Qatar, indicating its inability to fulfill commitments due to the disrupted supply chain.
Despite the current challenges, Qatar is preparing for a rapid recovery once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that QatarEnergy plans to restore LNG output to about 50% of capacity within one month of safe passage being re-established and to roughly 80% within two months. This readiness is supported by observations of several empty Qatari LNG vessels returning to the Middle East, signaling Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export plant, as their next destination, in anticipation of ramping up exports following a US-Iran deal.
Long-term, Shell anticipates global LNG demand to surge by at least 45% by 2050 from 2025 levels, reaching between 610 million to 780 million tons annually. Asia is expected to remain the primary demand driver, while European nations will continue to rely on LNG as renewable energy adoption lags. However, the timelines for some LNG projects might face uncertainty due to costs, supply, and labor issues. Shell's demand outlook, accurate as of March 16, 2026, acknowledges that the final outlook could vary significantly due to the evolving conflict in the Middle East.
