Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing, with shipowners and traders showing growing confidence in transiting the crucial energy chokepoint. On Tuesday, seven tankers, including two fully-laden non-Iranian supertankers, were observed either in or having already crossed the strait, all broadcasting their locations. This marks a notable uptick compared to earlier periods.
Contributing to this increased activity, Iran has ramped up its crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to levels not seen since the war began. Three US-sanctioned supertankers—Elva, Virgo, and Vigor—carrying approximately 6 million barrels of Iranian oil, entered the chokepoint early Monday. These vessels are reportedly headed to waters off Singapore, a common transshipment point for Iranian crude ultimately destined for China.
The surge in shipping activity coincides with ongoing efforts by Tehran and Washington to secure a lasting peace deal, which appears to be fostering a greater sense of security for maritime operations in the region. Recent data from marine intelligence company Kpler showed a significant increase in traffic last week, with 73 ships passing through on Wednesday and 54 on Thursday, up from fewer than 10 commodity ships a day during the height of the conflict.
Despite the positive trend, the fragility of the 60-day ceasefire deal was underscored by recent attacks on commercial vessels. Two transit routes have emerged: one in Iranian waters and another near the coast of Oman, recommended by Western navies. Around 80 mines are still present in the main transit corridor. The US said Iran attacked an oil tanker on Saturday, following a container ship strike days earlier. Despite these incidents, US-assisted navigation continued, and some owners passed through even after the attacks, indicating cautious but growing confidence. The Joint Maritime Information Center initially raised its threat level to "substantial" but traffic has not been interrupted. While confidence is improving, insurance costs remain exceptionally high, and clear agreements between the US and Iran are needed for a full return to pre-war traffic levels.
