Johannesburg's benchmark stock index, the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, is on track for its worst monthly performance in nearly two decades. By March 30, 2026, the index was down 14% for the month, putting it on pace for its biggest monthly decline since September 2008, during the global financial crisis. This marks a significant reversal after the index recorded 12 consecutive monthly gains through February, its longest streak on record.
The decline is largely attributed to a dual impact. Firstly, the ongoing Iran war is causing a broad selloff in emerging-market assets, as investors become concerned that escalating oil prices will fuel inflation and lead central banks to raise interest rates. This risk-off environment has seen emerging markets, including South Africa, fall out of favor. Secondly, plunging precious metal prices are severely weighing on South Africa's mining sector, which accounts for a quarter of the index's weighting.
The precious metals and mining sector has tumbled 27% since the start of the Middle East conflict, wiping out its gains for the year, as gold and platinum prices have slumped. This has led to sharp drops in major mining companies, with Valterra Platinum Ltd., Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd., and Anglogold Ashanti Plc all falling more than 12% on April 26. The selloff is not limited to miners, however; construction and materials, retailers, and banks have also seen declines of over 10% this month. Analysts from SBG Securities noted that profit-taking in precious metals counters due to de-risking has amplified the hit on South African equities.
An extended conflict in Iran could further dampen prospects, as sustained high energy prices would fuel inflation, potentially leading to higher interest rates and slower economic growth, according to the South African Reserve Bank. This scenario would likely deepen the selloff beyond the mining sector and negatively impact retailers, banks, property, and insurers. Despite the current downturn, some investors remain positive, viewing the decline as an opportunity, with SBG Securities reiterating an overweight view on South African stocks and noting that foreign investors were still net buyers year-to-date. AXYS Group's Cedric Beguier also highlighted that while the JSE reacts negatively initially to global conflicts, its depth, liquidity, and resource exporters often enable it to hold up better than many other African exchanges over time.
