Recent data indicates a pickup in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with more tankers broadcasting their satellite signals. As of Tuesday, seven tankers, including two fully-laden non-Iranian supertankers, were either in the strait or had crossed, all with their locations being broadcast. This suggests growing confidence among shipowners and traders in navigating the critical energy chokepoint, even after a recent attack on a container vessel.
Despite an attack on the container vessel Ever Lovely on June 25 while using the recommended southern route along Oman's coast, traffic has continued to flow. This was the first attack since an interim peace agreement was signed. Following the incident, an oil tanker owned by a company that had avoided Hormuz since the war began exited the gulf, signaling that some shipowners remain comfortable with transit. However, some companies, including one based in Asia, have revisited their plans, with an empty liquefied natural gas carrier reportedly turning around while using the Iranian route. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) even canceled a coordinated evacuation plan for ships in Hormuz after the attack.
The overall flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its fastest pace since the war began, with tankers hauling approximately 20 million barrels of crude passing through over one weekend. This is the highest transparent flow observed since before the war. Traffic levels, while fluctuating, show a steady increase since June 15. On June 24, 57 commodity vessels crossed, which decreased to 42 on June 25, and then 29 by the afternoon of June 26. This compares to a pre-war average of 138 vessels a day and 70 confirmed crossings on June 24.
While the US facilitated 80 ship crossings between June 23 and 24, concerns persist about safety. Iran's foreign ministry stated that safe transit without its permission could not be guaranteed, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned against using a new corridor announced by Oman and the IMO without Tehran's consultation. Despite warnings from Iran about unauthorized routes, some vessels are still using the southern passage along Oman, and others continue to use the Iranian route. The US and Iran are still at odds over the management of the strait, with the US insisting it remain toll-free.
