The Democratic Republic of Congo's mining regulator, ARECOMS, has issued a directive requiring cobalt miners to fulfill their outstanding fourth-quarter 2025 export quotas by April 30, 2026. Any cobalt volumes that remain unshipped after this deadline will be forfeited and subsequently transferred into a strategic reserve. This measure, along with other non-compliance penalties, was officially put into effect on March 31, 2026, as stated by ARECOMS chair Patrick Luabeya.
This decision comes after previous extensions and logistical challenges that have hampered cobalt exports from the DRC, which accounts for approximately 70% of the world's cobalt supply. Initially, companies were granted extensions to roll over 2025 quotas into 2026 due to delays in new procedures and operational constraints. Reports from Fastmarkets indicated a significant discrepancy, with cobalt hydroxide exports for Q4 2025 (extended to Q1 2026) being less than half or around one-third of the allocated volumes, primarily due to paperwork and logistical issues, including a bridge collapse on a key route. The total allocated quota for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 18,125 metric tons of cobalt.
The industry reaction to the latest deadline has been mixed. A source at CMOC, a major cobalt producer, indicated that the April 30 deadline was sufficient, as the company had already shipped its entire fourth-quarter quota for 2025 and had not yet started on first-quarter 2026 allocations. Conversely, a source from CMOC's trading arm, IXM, found the extension long enough but expressed concerns about the lack of clarity in the regulator's timeline. However, a source from China's Huayou welcomed the decision, viewing it as "good news." Logistical issues have been a persistent problem, with limited cobalt hydroxide available on the spot market and Chinese imports of cobalt intermediates declining due to feedstock shortages.
Looking ahead, quotas for the first quarter of 2026 can be shipped until June 30, alongside those for the second quarter, with the total allocated quotas for 2026 remaining valid. The annual quota for 2026 caps exports at 87,000 metric tons, or 7,250 metric tons per month, with an additional potential strategic quota of 9,600 metric tons at the government's discretion. Analysts like Robert Searle from Fastmarkets have predicted a tightening cobalt market in 2026 and 2027 due to the quota system, with an expected deficit of $5,000-$6,000 this year and next, potentially leading to an ongoing squeeze for Chinese buyers through mid-2026 if issues persist. Cobalt hydroxide prices, cif China, averaged $25.44-$25.80 per pound in January-February, an increase of about 340% year-on-year.
