Corn futures saw a notable decline, hitting their lowest point in about two years, ahead of expected USDA reports that are set to indicate the largest U.S. corn supply since 1988. This downturn is attributed to burgeoning global stockpiles, which have been further amplified by unexpected production increases from countries like India and South America.
The global corn market is currently well-supplied, with no immediate shortages. The USDA's June WASDE report, while making only small adjustments to the U.S. balance sheet, surprisingly revealed substantial upward revisions to South America's production, and a significant, unexpected contribution of approximately 9 million metric tons from India. These combined additions, totaling about 14 million metric tons (551 million bushels), boosted 2025-26 global ending stocks by 2.2%.
This oversupply has led to a "tailspin" in corn futures, with the new-crop December price tumbling to a contract low near $4.35 per bushel. This represents a stunning 13% plunge from a mid-May high of around $5.07. Analysts suggest that the world has plenty of corn, providing little incentive for speculators to take a long position. In fact, managed funds shifted to a net-short position before the report, after holding a substantial net-long position for the preceding three months.
Looking ahead, the USDA projects the 2026-27 corn crop at 15.995 billion bushels, with an estimated yield of 183 bushels per acre, which would make it the second-largest crop on record. Ending stocks for 2026-27 are projected at 1.957 billion bushels. Despite this, experts like those at Farm Futures suggest a "go-slow" mindset for farmers, noting the potential for summer weather developments or the June 30 Acreage report to provide a bullish boost to prices, though some also warn of potential further downside toward sub-$4 levels.
