Recent data indicates that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly following a recent attack on a container ship and renewed warnings from Iran. On June 25, the container ship Ever Lovely was hit while using the southern, Omani-coast route, marking the first attack since an interim peace agreement was signed. This incident, coupled with Iran's reiteration that transiting outside its designated routes is not permitted, has led some shipowners to review their plans, with at least one Asian company advising vessels in the Gulf to stay put.
Despite these concerns, traffic continues to flow through the Strait. Immediately after the Ever Lovely attack, an oil tanker owned by a company that had previously avoided Hormuz transited the area. As of June 26, two fully laden tankers were exiting the Persian Gulf, and four empty, inbound very large crude carriers were among the vessels sailing along the Omani coast. However, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that 80 ship crossings occurred between June 23 and 24, a notable drop from the pre-war average of 138 vessels per day, and S&P Global noted 78 transits on June 26, compared to a pre-war average of 130 or more.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) initially planned to evacuate ships but canceled this coordinated effort after the attack, with its Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stating the plan was on hold until safety guarantees could be confirmed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed Washington's commitment to ensuring transit. Iran's foreign ministry later stated that Hormuz management would follow the US agreement, though its deputy foreign minister warned safe passage without permission couldn't be guaranteed. The U.S. has been pressuring Oman not to establish a joint tolling system with Iran, with Rubio claiming Oman assured him it opposed tolls.
While some ships are still using the Iranian route to the north, recognized by the IMO, the overall situation remains volatile. Chubb Ltd. CEO Evan Greenberg, a major insurer, described the security in Hormuz as "from day to day, hour to hour." In previous days (June 21-23), there was a surge in traffic, with 20 million barrels of crude passing through, marking the fastest transparent flow since the war began. Seven tankers, including two fully-laden non-Iranian supertankers, were observed broadcasting their locations, indicating growing confidence among some despite the underlying risks.
Oil prices briefly dipped below their pre-war level of just under $73 per barrel, suggesting that the market perceived an improvement in the situation before the latest attack. Iran had previously threatened vessels using routes outside its designated corridor, and a U.S. official confirmed the Ever Lovely was attacked by an Iranian drone. The U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council have rejected any tolls or fees for transit through the Strait. Oman, which initially discussed administering traffic with Tehran, later assured the U.S. that it did not favor tolls.
