Spain's annual inflation rate remained at 3.2% in May 2026, consistent with April and below preliminary expectations of 3.4%. This marks the third straight month that headline inflation has stayed above the 3% threshold, influenced by the conflict in Iran and its impact on energy prices. The Spanish government attributes the stability to its anti-crisis measures and a "renewables shield," estimating these efforts have lowered headline inflation by over one percentage point.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and unprocessed food, rose slightly to 3.0% in May, two tenths higher than in April and one tenth above advanced estimates. Meanwhile, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for comparison within the EU, increased to 3.6% annually, up from 3.5% in April and representing the highest rate since May 2024. On a monthly basis, the overall CPI saw a modest 0.1% increase, a slowdown from April's 0.4% rise and below forecasts of 0.2%.
The stable inflation rate was a result of mixed movements in various sectors. Upward pressure came from transport, which saw its annual rate increase by almost one point to 7.4% due to higher air passenger transport prices, and recreational activities, sport, and culture, with an annual rate of 2.6% as package tour prices fell less than in the previous year. Conversely, clothing and footwear prices decreased by 1.1% annually, while food and non-alcoholic beverages saw their annual variation ease to 2.2%, four tenths below April, thanks to slower price increases for fruits, nuts, vegetables, legumes, and potatoes.
Regionally, all autonomous communities recorded positive annual CPI rates in May, with Comunidad de Madrid registering the highest at 3.8% and Extremadura the lowest at 2.5%. Looking ahead, analysts at BBVA Research project that headline inflation could climb to 3.6% or 3.7% in June, partly due to the anticipated partial withdrawal of energy tax breaks on electricity and gas, which is expected to increase the energy sector's contribution to inflation. This forecast suggests continued vigilance from the government regarding its anti-crisis plan and potential adjustments in the coming weeks.
