Despite a recent deal between the US and Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to pre-war levels. Only seven vessels have passed through the critical waterway since the deal was announced, while approximately 580 ships, including over 250 tankers, are reportedly waiting in the Gulf. Tanker operators and security experts are hesitant to resume full operations due to three main concerns: the threat of mines, potential new tolls or fees, and general security instability. This backlog is projected to continue for weeks, and potentially months, impacting global oil and gas supplies.
The immediate obstacle is the presence of mines. Iran had previously threatened to deploy various types of sea mines if its coastline was attacked, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Iran had "mined large segments of Hormuz." While a southern route near Oman appears largely clear, the main shipping lanes require extensive mine-hunting efforts. Experts estimate that clearing these mines could take anywhere from 30 days to six months, a process complicated by the need for slow speeds (two to three knots) for detailed underwater surveys. The International Maritime Organization's secretary general, Arsenio Dominguez, emphasized that mine removal is an essential first step for maritime traffic to normalize.
Another deterrent is the potential for new tolls or fees. Historically, passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been free, considered customary international law. However, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that a new deal with the US might involve Iran managing the strait with Oman, including possible "service fees" for transit. Experts like Das suggest such a payment system could create a "logistical limit or a chokehold" on daily ship transits. It remains unclear what services these fees would cover, but any new costs would add further complications to the already cautious shipping environment.
Overall security also remains a significant concern. The value of a supertanker and its cargo of crude is around $300 million, making insurance, shipping, and oil companies extremely risk-averse. Jakob Larsen of BIMCO stated, "We still consider it very risky for ships to transit at this point." Multinational naval forces from the UK, France, and Germany are reportedly deploying to the region in anticipation of mine-clearing operations. While some believe the full normalization of commercial shipping could take months, analysts like Dimitris Ampatzidis from Kpler foresee a gradual return to normal from a political security perspective, but not yet commercially. Shipping companies, including Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, have indicated they will delay transits for several weeks until safety is sufficiently confirmed and the US-Iran deal is deemed substantial.
