US President Donald Trump has cast considerable doubt on the continuation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), stating he would prefer the US not be part of the trilateral trade pact. While he stopped short of issuing an outright threat to quit, his remarks, made on June 17, 2026, during a trip to Paris following the Group of Seven summit, signal a challenging environment for the deal's upcoming review. Trump indicated his primary motivation for initially seeking the USMCA was to replace NAFTA, which he deemed the "worst trade agreement ever made." This stance creates uncertainty just ahead of the July 1 deadline, the date originally stipulated for the agreement's potential extension.
Mexico's minister, leading the USMCA talks, is trying to project optimism despite Trump's position. A virtual negotiating session is scheduled for July 1, coinciding with the renewal deadline. This deadline mandates that all three countries notify their counterparts whether they wish to renew the agreement for a 16-year period or opt for an annual review process. Both Canada and Mexico have formally indicated their preference for a 16-year extension. However, the US position remains unclear, with Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra stating that officials are "not anywhere near" a deal.
Hoekstra also mentioned that a previous deal covering five critical areas—oil, uranium, auto parts, steel, and aluminum—was close to being finalized last October during Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Washington, but fell apart. He noted that the US and Canada have yet to get fully "back on track" in their trade discussions as the US has with Mexico. The trade deal would remain in effect for 10 years even without an extended renewal, with annual reviews and the option for any party to withdraw with six months' notice. Analysts anticipate Trump may use the threat of withdrawal as a negotiating tactic. Despite the political uncertainty, deeply integrated North American supply chains make a full unwinding of the agreement difficult and costly, as inputs for US manufacturing often come from Canada and Mexico.
