Asian buyers of liquefied natural gas are expecting QatarEnergy to lift its force majeure declarations on LNG exports in July. This comes after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane. QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company, has informed its buyers that it plans to quickly ramp up LNG production.
Specifically, QatarEnergy expects to restore about 50% of its export capacity within one month of safe passage being re-established through the Strait of Hormuz. This is projected to increase to roughly 80% of its pre-crisis capacity within two months. This expedited recovery is a key factor in the market's anticipation of price stabilization.
The overall natural gas market is expected to return to balance in the third quarter of the year, with pre-war supply levels anticipated by the fourth quarter. This outlook is shared by the head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), Philip Mshelbila, who noted that if the Strait remains open, markets will see restabilization. Qatar, a major global LNG producer, had declared force majeure due to significant damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub and the subsequent blockade of the Strait. The crisis had pushed natural gas prices to their highest levels since 2022.
Qatar is also actively preparing for increased shipments by bringing back empty LNG tankers. According to ship-tracking data, four tankers, either owned by Qatar's shipping arm or under long-term charter, are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz without concealing their locations. This move underscores Qatar’s commitment to rapidly resume its position as a primary LNG exporter, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global supply.
