Kazakhstan's oil output is expected to decline in 2026, failing to surpass the annual production target of 100 million tons, according to Kazakh oil and gas expert Olzhas Baidildinov. This decline is largely attributed to ongoing disruptions at its significant Tengiz oil field and a series of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure, which is crucial for exporting Kazakh oil. The total damages and lost revenue resulting from these attacks have exceeded $4 billion since November 2025.
The energy ministry reported a substantial decrease in oil and gas condensate production in the first quarter of 2026, totaling 19.7 million tons, which is only 80.2% of the production during the same period in the previous year. Oil exports for the first three months of 2026 also saw a significant drop, reaching 15.3 million tons, or 78.5% of the 2025 figures.
The Ukrainian drone attacks have repeatedly targeted CPC facilities in Russia, through which a majority of Kazakhstan's oil reaches global markets. Specific incidents include drone attacks on single-point moorings (SPMs) at the CPC in November 2025 and on tankers chartered to transport Kazakh oil in January 2026. These disruptions have severely impacted Kazakhstan's ability to maintain its oil production and export levels.
Adding to the challenges, a refinery in West Kazakhstan Region, Condensat, faces potential raw material shortages after a Russian supplier, TANECO refinery, halted oil processing due to a drone attack. TANECO had been supplying oil and gas condensate to Condensat since February 2024. This disruption could prevent Condensat from processing an planned 20,000 tons of raw materials from Russia in June, which would have produced K-5 class AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline. Condensat has historically operated at minimal capacity and relies on external feedstock to boost production.
The attacks illustrate a growing vulnerability in the global energy supply chain and force Kazakhstan to consider alternative, though limited, export routes. While some oil is being redirected to China and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, these options only partially mitigate the impact of the CPC disruptions, further complicating Kazakhstan's energy outlook for the year.
