Ukrainian drone attacks on June 24, 2026, targeted a Gazprom PJSC gas-processing plant and a helium production facility in Russia's Orenburg region, approximately 170 kilometers from the Kazakh border. These facilities process gas from Kazakhstan's Karachaganak field, raising concerns about a ripple effect on Kazakh oil and gas output.
This incident adds to a series of disruptions impacting Kazakhstan's energy sector. Earlier reports indicated that Kazakhstan's oil production for 2026 is projected to decrease due to ongoing issues, including those at the Tengiz oil field and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure. The CPC is a critical export route for the majority of Kazakh oil to global markets.
Since November 2025, drone attacks on CPC facilities have resulted in significant damages and lost revenue, estimated by Kazakh oil and gas expert Olzhas Baidildinov to exceed $4 billion. The attacks, which damaged single-point moorings (SPMs) and even tankers, have drastically reduced loading capacity and caused a 19% drop in CPC exports in December 2025 compared to November. Consequently, Kazakhstan's oil production contracted by nearly 20% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with January losses alone reaching $1.5 billion. Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed a decline in oil and gas industry indicators, with oil and gas condensate production at 19.7 million tons (80.2% of the previous year) and oil exports at 15.3 million tons (78.5% of the previous year) for the first three months of 2026. The country is likely to fall short of its annual production target of 100 million tons for 2026.
In addition to export concerns, a Kazakh refinery, Condensat, faces potential raw material shortages after a drone attack forced its Russian supplier, TANECO refinery, to halt oil processing. TANECO had been supplying Condensat with oil and gas condensate since February 2024, and without Russian feedstock, Condensat, which historically operated at minimal capacity, could face significant challenges in meeting its production goals for gasoline.
Kazakhstan's export options are narrowing, with the northern leg of the Druzhba pipeline to Germany closed by Russia in May 2026, and the CPC continuously targeted by Ukrainian drones. While some diversification to routes like Atasu-Alashankou (up 50,000 tons) and Atyrau–Samara (up to 255,500 barrels per day) is occurring, the combined capacity of all alternative routes pales in comparison to the CPC's throughput, meaning most redirected volume still ends up on the vulnerable CPC.
