Oil prices held gains despite an attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as the market weighed increased shipping traffic and the ongoing, fragile peace deal between the US and Iran. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell below $72.48 a barrel, returning to pre-war levels seen before the conflict began in late February. This decline is attributed to a sudden influx of supply, with buyers inundated by offers from the Middle East and Africa.
Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to at least 75% of pre-war levels just a week after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal. This recovery marks a significant reversal after one of the biggest shipping disruptions in decades. However, the situation remains precarious, as evidenced by the attack on a cargo ship southeast of Dahit, Oman, which sustained damage to its bridge from an unknown projectile. No casualties or environmental impact were reported, but UK Maritime Trade Operations advised vessels to transit with caution.
Iran, despite the peace deal, signaled its intention to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, warning vessels to adhere to routes designated by Tehran and rejecting newly announced shipping routes as dangerous. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted on June 24 that shipments through the strait were approaching pre-war levels, with at least 20 million barrels exiting in the previous 24 hours. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured Gulf allies that Washington's preliminary accord with Tehran would not compromise regional security and reiterated that no country has the right to charge fees for using international waterways like the Strait of Hormuz, an issue Iran has hinted at proposing in future talks after the initial 60-day free passage period provided by the interim agreement.
While traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased significantly, reaching 70 confirmed crossings on Wednesday—the highest since Iran closed the strait on March 1—it is not yet back to normal, remaining at roughly half its peacetime level. The recovery of oil flows has led to a market suddenly awash with supply, pushing prices down. The UN’s International Maritime Organization reported that 57 ships carrying about 1,100 seafarers have transited the strait since June 23 under an evacuation plan, further contributing to eased market tension despite Iran's continued assertions of control over the vital choke point.
