Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz indicate a complex and increasingly tense situation regarding maritime transit. While Oman and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have promoted a new southern route along the Omani coast to ease congestion and provide a safer passage, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vehemently rejected this, stating that only Iranian-approved routes are valid and that the new route is "unacceptable and completely dangerous." This conflicting guidance has created significant uncertainty for the estimated 600 vessels and 11,000 seafarers currently in the Gulf, with some reports indicating that ships have turned back after attempting to use the new route.
The new route, which runs along the United Arab Emirates and Oman's Musandam Peninsula, was established in response to threats and incidents in the traditional central channel, where mines were reportedly sighted. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to the Gulf, reaffirmed Washington's commitment to ensuring the viability of the Oman route, stating that transit fees are unacceptable. Despite the threats, several tankers, including the Stoic Warrior and Maersk Baltimore, successfully navigated the new route under the new framework. According to S&P Global, there were 78 transits on Wednesday, a significant increase from 33 the previous week but still below the pre-war average of 130 or more daily transits.
The IMO, in collaboration with Iran, Oman, and the U.S., announced a framework on Tuesday to facilitate the evacuation of stranded vessels, with U.S. Energy Secretary Wright reporting that roughly 72 ships exited the Strait in the last 24 hours. However, the IRGC's strong opposition, including threats to vessels over the radio, highlights the ongoing geopolitical challenges in the region. The naval arm of the Revolutionary Guard issued a warning emphasizing that the new route was established without coordination with Iran and is considered dangerous and prohibited. This puts Oman at odds with Iran regarding the management of the critical waterway, despite an earlier agreement between Oman and Iran to establish a joint working group on future navigation.
