Russia's seaborne crude exports have reached near-record levels in 2026, averaging 3.83 million barrels per day in the four weeks to June 14, the highest pace for the year. This surge comes as Ukraine continues to target Russian oil refineries, forcing more crude onto the global market despite falling production. The year-to-date average of 3.49 million barrels per day surpasses annual averages since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This build-up of exports was previously buoyed by high oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, with average shipments hitting 3.66 million barrels per day in the four weeks to May 24.
The increase in Russian exports is significantly driven by demand from India and China. India's purchases of Russian crude are on track to hit an all-time high of 2.35 million barrels per day in mid-June, exceeding the previous record of 2.16 million barrels per day in May 2023. This was partly influenced by US waivers that allowed India to buy discounted Urals crude. Simultaneously, Russian oil exports to China surged 35% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 to 31 million tonnes, with crude unloaded at Dongjiakou terminal jumping 144%, as Chinese refiners swapped Iranian barrels for Russian ones.
However, Russia's oil market dominance is set to face new challenges with the return of Iranian oil to the global market. A 60-day US sanctions waiver has taken effect, allowing Iran to resume exports and clear a backlog of cargoes. Over 30 million barrels of Iranian crude departed for Asia in the week prior to the waiver. Iranian sellers are actively courting major Asian buyers, including India, Japan, and South Korea, which could intensify competition for market share and potentially pressure Russian sales, especially after the US allowed a temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil to lapse on June 17, shifting focus to finalizing an Iran deal. This move could also lead to tougher sanctions on Russia's war economy.
