Conflicting messages from the United States and Iran have created significant uncertainty for shipowners regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US Central Command reported 55 merchant ships transiting the strait on Saturday, carrying over 17 million barrels of oil, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway closed. Tehran maintains this closure is a response to alleged US and Israeli violations of an interim peace agreement and has issued guidance requiring passage permits for vessels.
This dispute follows a period of reduced traffic after hostilities erupted on February 28, when daily transits plummeted from 130-160 vessels to around six. Although a recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding and 60-day ceasefire led to a modest recovery in transits to approximately 25 vessels, vessel-tracking data from Kpler indicated only five ships passed through on Sunday, a sharp decline from 26 the day before.
Compounding the situation, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority is demanding passage permits, with a memo stating "no vessel is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without a valid passage permit." Reports of warning shots and ongoing movement restrictions are circulating among shipowners. The threat of mines also remains a serious concern, with clearance operations expected to take up to two months. Amid this uncertainty, a new marine war risk insurance consortium led by Chubb was launched on Friday, offering up to $400 million in cover for vessels and cargo.
Despite the conflicting claims, a direct communication line has been established between Iran and the United States to "avoid incidents and miscommunication" during the 60-day negotiation period, as announced by mediators Qatar and Pakistan after the Lake Lucerne Summit. Iran has committed to not imposing transit fees during this time and to address navigational safety and demining within 30 days. However, the future administration and maritime services in the Strait are subject to discussions between Iran and Oman, along with other Persian Gulf littoral states.
