Amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, creating a significant disconnect between political declarations and the operational reality for commercial shipping. While the US Central Command reported 55 merchant vessels transiting on a recent Saturday carrying over 17 million barrels of oil and other cargo, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintained that the waterway had been closed in response to alleged violations of a peace agreement by the US and Israel. This contradictory information leaves shipowners in a precarious position, hesitant to commit to transiting the critical chokepoint.
Prior to the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, the Strait typically saw between 130 and 160 vessel transits daily. Following Iran's initial closure declaration, traffic plummeted to approximately six ships per day. Although a US-Iran memorandum of understanding and a 60-day ceasefire led to a modest recovery, with around 25 vessels transiting last Thursday, recent data shows renewed declines. For example, Kpler data indicated only five ships passed through on a recent Sunday, down from 26 the day before. The situation is further complicated by Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) requiring passage permits, a move the US Treasury previously sanctioned for its alleged ties to the IRGC.
Shipowners face a choice between an Iranian-controlled northern route, potentially subject to US sanctions and permit requirements, and a US-backed southern corridor. The southern route, advocated by the US Navy's Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping (NCAGS), encourages vessels to keep AIS on and coordinate, though participation is not mandatory. Both routes are still considered risky due to the persistent mine threat, with mine clearing operations estimated to take up to two months. The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) maintains a "Moderate" threat level, and recent NAVAREA IX warnings have identified suspected and confirmed mines near main shipping lanes. The uncertainty is reflected in insurance markets, with a new marine war risk insurance consortium led by Chubb offering up to $400 million in cover for Hormuz transits.
