Even after the US and Iran signed a ceasefire memorandum agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for toll-free commercial traffic, shipping through the critical waterway remains largely paralyzed. As of Wednesday evening, June 18, not a single outbound commercial vessel had transited the chokepoint, with approximately 483 ships stranded in the Arabian Gulf. This includes about 220 tankers, according to Kpler data. Before the conflict, weekly transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged between 650 and 770 vessels, meaning 90 to 110 transits per day in both directions.
Experts and industry leaders are advising caution, emphasizing that a return to normal shipping levels will be gradual rather than immediate. John Smith, a senior industry specialist, noted there is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after such a significant disruption, suggesting an incremental ramp-up instead of a quick return to over 100 daily transits. Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic shows only seven vessels have passed through the waterway since the deal, while 580 ships, including over 250 tankers and 330 cargo ships, are waiting in the Gulf.
The delay is attributed to several significant obstacles, including security concerns, a need to clear mines from the strait, and potential new toll fees. Mine clearance alone could take 30 days to six months. While Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of the UK has pledged support for reopening the strait "as soon as possible," shipowners and insurers are waiting for naval forces to certify safe transit corridors and for war risk insurance to be reinstated. Major shipping lines like Maersk and MSC anticipate a six to eight-week period for full service restoration once initial reopening occurs.
Further complicating matters, the Fars news agency reported that under the new deal, Iran, in coordination with Oman, might manage the strait and introduce "service fees." Such a payment system could create a "logistical limit" or "chokehold" on daily transits. Ship captains, owners, and insurers are preparing their vessels, but few are willing to be the first to move, recalling an incident in early April when the strait briefly reopened, only to be closed a day later with 33 vessels forced to reverse course and some reportedly fired upon. The cautious approach is expected to lead to a slow and gradual normalization of commercial shipping despite the political agreement.
Oil producers are also facing challenges, with much of the region's production and refining shut down during the conflict. Restarting these operations will be a slow process, and once underway, new tankers will need to return to pick up shipments. Many ship operators are hesitant to risk being stuck again, further prolonging the return to pre-conflict shipping volumes. It will take weeks for the roughly 120 tankers filled with oil in the Gulf to exit, and even longer for the 100 empty tankers to fill up and leave, meaning a full recovery of traffic and oil flows could take months.
