Oil prices initially climbed but later retreated, while global stock markets displayed mixed reactions as developments unfolded in the peace talks between the US and Iran. Brent crude, which had risen over 1% to around $81.50 a barrel in early trading, later slid 2% to below $79 a barrel after mediators announced a roadmap towards a final peace deal within 60 days. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw similar fluctuations, falling 0.8% to $75.27 a barrel, though other reports indicated WTI was 1.2% higher at $77.52 at one point.
US stock futures initially dipped, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3%, following a rocky start to the talks and President Trump's renewed threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, S&P 500 futures later pared losses to trade down 0.4%, and eventually trimmed declines further to only 0.2% down. Conversely, Asia's equity benchmark rose 0.7%, with Japan's Topix up 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite rising 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9%. European contracts like the Euro Stoxx 50 also slipped 0.2%.
The talks, initially cast into doubt by Iranian media reports of a halt after Trump's threats on Sunday, were confirmed to be ongoing by people familiar with the matter. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan announced "encouraging progress" had been made, including the establishment of a mechanism for further technical talks and a communication line to prevent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi highlighted significant economic benefits already secured, such as sanctions relief, lifted blockades, released frozen assets, and increased oil and petrochemical exports. Exports by Iran stood at approximately 36 million barrels of crude since June 15, with another 36 million barrels floating, ready for international markets, a significant increase from pre-war levels of 209,000-260,000 barrels per day. Gold prices rebounded, rising 1% to $4,196.54 an ounce, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
