Iranian crude oil flows have reportedly surged after a months-long US naval blockade on the country's ports was lifted. On June 19, seven supertankers, with a combined capacity to carry approximately 14 million barrels of crude, were observed departing the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. This marks a significant increase compared to the four vessels detected over the prior two days.
This uptick in activity coincides with preparations for a peace deal that could allow Tehran to immediately resume oil sales. Prior to this, on June 16, several Iran-linked oil tankers began shifting positions, with two supertankers capable of hauling 2 million barrels each appearing to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman after activating their transponders. While these developments point to an increase in Iranian exports, concerns remain about the overall safety and reliability of transit through the region.
Amidst these changes, the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has continued, with some tankers reportedly disabling their transponders. This included at least four non-Iranian vessels carrying crude that left the Persian Gulf with their signals turned off between Sunday and Monday. The seven-day average for inferred crude outflows has remained above 2 million barrels per day this month, according to Bloomberg calculations using Kpler and Vortexa data. The US military has asserted its capability to defend the southern route near Oman's coast, despite Iran's claims of broader control over the waterway.
The potential for increased supply from Iran has already impacted global oil prices, with benchmark Brent crude futures reportedly falling below $80 per barrel from previous highs near $120 a barrel. This price drop could stimulate demand from major buyers like China, which had been less active due to higher prices. As of June 17, at least three tankers carrying about 5 million barrels of Iranian oil had successfully navigated the US naval blockade, and several other Iranian-flagged dry bulk and container ships that had been anchored off Malaysia's coast were sailing back towards Iran.
