Hasan AlHasan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), highlighted how Iran has strategically leveraged its control over the Strait of Hormuz to exert pressure on Gulf states and the international community. This comes as the Strait of Hormuz has become a central point of contention in ongoing US-Iran negotiations and a fragile ceasefire. Iran's actions, including the closure of the strait and demands for reparations and guarantees against future aggression, are seen as attempts to gain leverage in a wider "economic war of attrition." The strait's repeated closures have caused significant disruptions to global energy supplies and heightened concerns among shipping companies, despite conflicting reports on its operational status.
The international community, alongside Gulf nations like Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, has rejected Iran's attempts to formalize control over the strait through the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" (PGSA). These nations have advised commercial vessels against engaging with the PGSA or using Iran-designated routes, appealing to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for intervention. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has threatened to take over the Strait of Hormuz and impose his own tolls, signaling a potential escalation if Iran does not moderate its actions.
The US and Iran have been engaged in high-level talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, aimed at establishing a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days. A key outcome of these talks was an agreement to open a communication line to ensure safe passage for commercial ships through the contested strait. However, Iran recently reimposed the closure of the strait, citing the US's failure to halt fighting in Lebanon, despite a new ceasefire agreement in that region. This move by Iran was reportedly driven by the desire to push for a broader resolution that addresses its demands.
Despite US Central Command's assertions that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and that US forces are monitoring the situation to ensure traffic flow, ship-tracking data indicates a slowdown in vessel traffic, particularly in the northern route, following Iranian warnings. The uncertainty and conflicting messages from both sides have led to nervousness among shipping companies, with many opting to avoid the strait. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that 67 ships had crossed the strait in a 24-hour period, with US forces assisting vessels through a southern shipping lane due to mining in parts of the main channel, underscoring the ongoing challenges and risks associated with navigating this critical waterway.
