Former National Security Advisor John Bolton views the recent U.S.-Iran agreement as a "real defeat" for the United States, describing it as a "self-inflicted wound." Speaking on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power: Evening Edition" on June 18th, 2026, Bolton expressed concerns that Iran would leverage funds from oil sales, facilitated by the deal, to rebuild its military capabilities. He further characterized the current situation as a "trap of Trump's own making."
This sentiment aligns with other expert opinions, as Miad Maleki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, mentioned in a denvergazette.com article, noted that the deal is skewed in Iran's favor, with a Bloomberg Economics analysis finding 10 points favoring Iran against only one for the U.S. Iran is set to receive sanctions waivers for oil exports and a $300 billion development program for post-conflict reconstruction.
Conversely, figures like Vance (also mentioned by bloomberg.com) and Alan Eyre of the Middle East Institute (pbs.org) view the deal more positively, with Eyre arguing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was the most urgent objective, which the deal achieved. However, Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official, told ABC News (goodmorningamerica.com) that Iran believes it has the "upper hand" and is negotiating from strength, leveraging its ability to control a fifth of the world's energy supply.
Many experts, including Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (pbs.org), echo Bolton's view, calling it a strategic defeat not just for Israel, but for the U.S. as well. They argue that the war of choice underestimated Iran's capacity and that the deal fails to address strategic threats like Iran's missile and drone programs and its nuclear ambitions, potentially incentivizing Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.
