Back-to-school shopping for 2025 has begun unusually early, with major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Shein launching promotions in early July, two days earlier on average than previous years. This aggressive timing is a strategy to attract shoppers and secure sales ahead of Amazon's Prime Day, which began on July 16 and 17. Retailers are offering significant discounts, such as 30% off school uniforms and backpacks at Target, and Walmart is hosting its "largest deals event ever" in early July.
Consumers are also contributing to this earlier start, largely due to concerns about potential price increases caused by tariffs and a general desire to spread out their budgets. The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that 26% of back-to-school and college shoppers had already started buying items by early June, up from 22% last year and 17% in 2019. Three-quarters, or 74%, of surveyed shoppers indicated they are shopping early due to worries that tariffs will drive up prices later in the season. Additionally, 56% of consumers are concerned about affording school supplies due to tariff-related price hikes.
Despite individual per-student spending forecasted to slightly decrease (K-12 students budgeting $858, down from $875; college students budgeting $1,326, down from $1,365), overall back-to-school spending is projected to reach $128 billion this year, a 2% increase from last year's $127.4 billion. This increase is attributed to more people stocking up and prioritizing essential purchases. Families for college kids are expected to spend $88.8 billion this year, up from $86.6 billion, while K-12 families will spend $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion. Many shoppers are looking for deals, with 91% saying higher prices will impact their purchasing behaviors, leading them to buy items on sale (38%), from cheaper brands (29%), comparison shop (29%), and reuse supplies (28%).
Retailers are also pushing the start of back-to-school sales to counteract financial pressures on consumers. Discount stores remain the most popular shopping destination for 62% of shoppers, followed by Amazon at 56%. Some states are also helping consumers manage costs by offering sales-tax holidays in July and August on certain items. The trend of an earlier back-to-school shopping season mirrors strategies seen during holiday shopping, where promotions now begin as early as October.
