US economic sanctions are struggling to achieve their intended effects as countries such as Iran, Russia, and North Korea have developed advanced techniques to evade them. This decline in effectiveness is pushing the US to consider more aggressive economic warfare tactics.
Previously, Washington maintained a clear distinction between economic tools like sanctions and military capabilities. However, a significant shift occurred with President Trump's decision to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, blurring this line. The US Navy has since seized or detained at least ten tankers linked to Venezuela, and threats of tariffs on oil shipments to Cuba have been backed by Coast Guard interceptions. Allies are following suit, with India seizing Iranian tankers and France detaining Russian ships.
This new approach could potentially restore the impact of US and allied sanctions, which have lost their bite in recent years. However, it also carries the risk of inviting retaliation and setting dangerous precedents for other nations to seize property. Critics highlight the need for a clear doctrine guiding the use of force to back sanctions, to avoid a global free-for-all and potential economic, cyber, or even military repercussions from adversaries.
China, in response to US pressure, has deployed its own economic arsenal, including a blacklist for foreign firms and laws authorizing punishment for companies complying with US sanctions against Chinese entities. Beijing has recently activated its blocking rules to defy American sanctions on domestic oil refiners and killed a US tech deal, signaling that the gap between threat and action has closed in its economic conflict with the US. Despite over 1,000 sanctions imposed on Iran in the last 18 months, Tehran has largely withstood the pressure, exposing the limitations of economic coercion against regimes adept at sidestepping restrictions.
