The back-to-school shopping season for 2025 has commenced earlier than in previous years, with retailers pushing promotions and consumers acting proactively. This early start, as noted by Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, is partly due to consumers responding to economic stress and uncertainty by beginning their shopping for key events like back-to-school earlier. As of July, 57% of families shopping for K-12 and college students had already started, an increase from 55% last year.
A significant driver for this early shopping trend is concern over potential price increases stemming from tariffs. Approximately 74% of surveyed shoppers indicated they are starting earlier this year specifically because they anticipate tariffs will lead to higher prices later in the season. Retailers are also contributing to this shift, with major players like Walmart, Target, Shein, and TikTok Shop launching back-to-school promotions earlier than in prior years, some by as much as two days. For instance, Target's week-long event began two days earlier, and Walmart is hosting its "largest deals event ever" also two days ahead of last year.
Despite an earlier start and concerns about rising prices, overall spending projections remain strong. Back-to-school spending for K-12 students is expected to average $858 per student, slightly down from $875 last year, while college students are projected to spend $1,326, down from $1,365. However, total spending for K-12 is anticipated to reach $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion, and overall back-to-school spending for all students is projected to hit $128 billion this year, a 2% increase from last year. This increase is attributed to consumers prioritizing essential categories and timing purchases around major sales events, with 82% of shoppers planning their major buys around July sales like Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Week.
Retailers have adapted their strategies, ordering inventory earlier to mitigate the impact of tariffs that went into effect on August 7th. They are also maintaining competitive pricing by offering discounts to offset any price increases. For example, Academy Outdoors is holding prices on youth apparel and footwear to help families manage their budgets. Discount stores remain the most popular shopping destination, favored by 62% of shoppers, followed by Amazon at 56%, and dollar and variety stores at 42%. Online retailers are the top choice overall, used by 55% of consumers for back-to-school shopping.
