OPEC's latest World Oil Outlook 2026, released on June 18, 2026, forecasts continued robust growth in global oil demand, anticipating it will reach $124.1$ million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050. This projection is an increase from the $122.9$ million bpd expected in their 2025 report and reinforces OPEC's long-held view that there will be no peak in oil demand in the foreseeable future. The report highlights a significant shift in global energy policy, with an increased focus on energy security and affordability leading to the reversal or delay of previously ambitious climate targets, particularly in the US and Europe.
The demand growth is primarily attributed to population expansion, urbanization, economic development, and rising living standards in developing economies. India is expected to be the largest contributor to this long-term growth, adding $8.1$ million bpd between 2025 and 2050. Sectorally, road transportation, petrochemicals, and aviation are identified as the main drivers of oil consumption growth through mid-century. Overall global energy demand is projected to rise by $23$ percent by 2050, reaching nearly $383$ million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
To meet this burgeoning demand, OPEC estimates that cumulative investments of $17.7$ trillion will be required in the oil sector between 2026 and 2050. This figure includes $14.5$ trillion for upstream projects, $1.9$ trillion for downstream infrastructure, and $1.3$ trillion for midstream assets. The report also notes that non-OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute approximately half of the increase in global liquids supply until 2030, with countries like Brazil, Qatar, the US, Argentina, and Canada leading the way. However, non-OPEC+ supply is expected to plateau in the 2030s, leading to OPEC+ producers capturing a larger market share, projected to increase from $48$ percent to $52$ percent by 2050. The Middle East is expected to strengthen its position as the largest oil exporting region, while Asia-Pacific remains the dominant importing market.
