A single trader on Polymarket, under the username `betoor619`, lost almost $1 million after Cabo Verde, an underdog, stunningly held Spain to a 0-0 draw in a World Cup match on June 15, 2026. `Betoor619` had wagered approximately $999,068 on a Spanish victory, a bet that oddsmakers considered nearly certain with a 92% implied win probability for Spain. The unexpected draw, powered by Cabo Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, led to the complete loss of this substantial wager.
Conversely, other traders capitalized on Spain's inability to secure a win. A trader known as "fishalive" turned a $400,000 position into over $4 million by betting that Spain would not win the match. This individual, whose total gains from the match, including a handicap position against Spain, amounted to approximately $4.7 million, made nearly $9 million in total from betting against favorites in the group stage. The market for the Spain vs. Cabo Verde match alone saw a total trading volume of $64 million on Polymarket.
This event highlights the high volatility and significant profit-and-loss swings within World Cup prediction markets, where unexpected outcomes can lead to millions in gains or losses. The expanded World Cup has already produced several such dramatic betting stories, with massive sums being wagered and won or lost on platforms like Polymarket, which saw its overall 2026 World Cup trading volume exceed $25 billion across 362 active markets.
