Commercial shipping traffic, including Asian tankers and European vessels, accelerated out of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday following a US-Iran peace agreement signed in France. Maritime intelligence data from Windward observed at least seven previously immobilized ships resuming transit, including five Chinese-affiliated vessels, a French LNG carrier, and an Italian vehicle carrier. This surge indicates growing confidence in the fragile ceasefire and the reopening of the critical chokepoint, which historically handles about one-fifth of global oil trade.
The activity comes days after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities that erupted earlier in 2026. The deal includes provisions for reopening the strait without immediate tolls, lifting certain blockades, and waiving (but not eliminating) sanctions on Iran's oil exports, allowing it to sell crude on the world market and restoring a revenue stream worth billions of dollars. Previously, Iran's exports had nearly ground to a halt under a blockade since April, with its only major buyer being China, requiring crude to be shipped via a shadow fleet of tankers, which cut into profits.
Separately, Iranian tankers linked to the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have become noticeably more active globally. Three Iran-flagged tankers (Diona, Hero II, and Sonia I), carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude oil, passed the US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman despite the official signing of the peace deal being scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. Additionally, two other NITC crude oil tankers, Dan and Sinopa, which had not broadcast their locations since early April, began doing so in the Strait of Malacca, seemingly headed towards Iran. This immediate movement of Iranian vessels highlights Iran's eagerness to resume oil exports.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, mediated with French and UK involvement in security planning, is expected to allow roughly 500 ships and thousands of sailors trapped in the Strait to exit. This will be a slow process, as vessels may need provisioning and repairs, and routes will need to account for potential mines. The peace deal has already impacted oil markets, with the benchmark Brent crude oil contract dropping to $79 per barrel, a level last seen before the conflict began, indicating a more stable outlook for global energy supplies.
Many drilling operations had shut down due to lack of storage, and while some countries like Saudi Arabia might restore production in weeks, others like Iraq could take months. The agreement's impact on longer-term energy supply chains and the global shift towards renewable energy will be closely watched.
