Commercial shipping traffic, including oil tankers, has rapidly increased out of the Strait of Hormuz following a peace agreement between the US and Iran signed in France. Maritime intelligence data indicates that multiple vessels, some stranded for over three months, are now underway. Analysts from Windward observed at least seven previously immobilized ships resuming transit, including five with Chinese affiliations, a French LNG carrier, and an Italian vehicle carrier.
This activity highlights growing confidence in the ceasefire and the reopening of the crucial chokepoint, which handles approximately one-fifth of global oil trade. The peace deal, reached days after hostilities erupted earlier in 2026, includes provisions for reopening the strait without immediate tolls and lifting certain blockades. French and UK involvement in security planning were also part of the de-escalation and trade restoration efforts.
Under the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports, which is expected to drive down gas prices. The deal immediately waives, but does not eliminate, sanctions on Iran's oil exports that were imposed by Trump, allowing Iran to re-enter the global market. Before the conflict, Iran's closure of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world's traded oil supplies transited, was a significant leverage point. While Iran had previously sold oil only to China via a shadow fleet and experienced nearly a complete halt in exports under the blockade since April, the waiver is anticipated to enable wider market access and higher prices for its crude.
