Following a framework agreement to end the war between the US and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several Iranian-linked oil tankers have started moving through the blockade area. On June 16, two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) tankers, the Diona and Hero 2, carrying a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian oil, exited the blockade line. Another NITC tanker, Sonia I, carrying 1 million barrels, also passed the US Navy's blockade line on June 17. These movements mark Iran's first crude oil exports in two months, with the crude likely headed to China initially.
Simultaneously, other commercial vessels are repositioning in anticipation of the Strait's full reopening. Two oil tankers, the Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 and the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Coslucky Lake, changed course in the Indian Ocean to head for Fujairah in the UAE, signaling a race by shipowners to secure voyages. The number of empty supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman has increased to about 60, up from three dozen earlier in the month, indicating readiness to pick up new cargoes once the Strait is fully open. Furthermore, Qatar is bringing some of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers back to the Middle East to prepare for increased exports.
A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran was signed on June 19, establishing an immediate ceasefire and setting a 60-day period for a comprehensive binding agreement. The US has agreed to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, with full removal within 30 days. Iran, in turn, is expected to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels for 60 days and will begin demining efforts within 30 days. This framework agreement, signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi, includes immediate sanctions waivers on Iranian oil sales, covering banking, transportation, and insurance services.
While these developments signal cautious optimism, challenges remain. Although an LNG tanker is attempting to transit the Strait, analysts note that a full return to pre-war production and refining levels could take weeks to months, or even years, due to lingering risks, insurance costs, and military tensions. The Strait of Hormuz, which usually handles about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, currently sees crude transit at around 4 million barrels per day (bpd), significantly lower than the 15 million bpd before the war. Oil prices have softened, with Brent crude futures remaining below $80 a barrel, as traders price in the possibility of increased supply, and investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their oil price forecasts.
However, the full normalization of oil flows may take months, as shipowners need confidence to return to the Persian Gulf. The ultimate outcome will depend on the long-term agreement between Iran and the US, with some analysts predicting that negotiations may extend beyond the initial 60-day period. The initial movements of tankers, including the Diona, the Hero 2, and the Sonia I, which were identified by TankerTrackers and MarineTraffic, are seen as crucial early tests of the interim agreement.
