Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the dominant forces in tech IPOs, are currently vying for the lucrative "lead left" underwriter positions for the upcoming initial public offerings of OpenAI and Anthropic. The lead-left bank, featuring prominently on the S-1 prospectus, stands to gain significantly more in terms of profit and influence compared to other banks involved in the deal. These anticipated IPOs are projected to be among the most profitable in Wall Street history.
This battle follows Goldman Sachs securing the coveted "lead left" bookrunner position for the SpaceX IPO, scheduled for June 12. Goldman will share the commissions from SpaceX's potential $75 billion valuation with 22 other banks, with Morgan Stanley listed second. The lead-left role isn't just about immediate fees; it also offers a "halo effect," potentially leading to future advisory roles, loans, and even new clients from newly wealthy employees.
While Goldman Sachs has led more deals over $100 million since the start of 2025 (22 deals) compared to Morgan Stanley (17 deals) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (17 deals), the post-IPO performance of some of its recent deals has been less impressive. Goldman's deals averaged an 11% gain after the first day but a 2% rise after a month and an 11% decline from recent prices, whereas Morgan Stanley saw healthier increases of 38% and 20% after a day and a month, respectively, but still a slight decrease from the IPO price to current levels on average.
Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly serving as top bookrunners for OpenAI and Anthropic, but the key decision of who will secure the "lead left" designation remains undetermined. Given the immense interest from institutional investors in these mega-IPOs, banks are actively trying to gain their favor. Some analysts express concerns that these highly anticipated deals, involving tens of billions of dollars in new shares, might lead investors to conserve their capital, potentially impacting other deals.
